This book offers the wisdom and insight regarding the US economy from a well-known and distinguished econometrician who found himself first teaching macro economics to MBAs and then Directing the highly-regarded and widely-quoted UCLA/Anderson Forecast which provides quarterly forecasts for the US economy. Edward Leamer argues that ‘We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals.’ He provides in this book the patterns and stories that are the basis for his understanding of what determines the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth Prof. Leamer is the director of UCLA Anderson Forecast, the leadingindipendent forecast providing insight to Decision Makers in Business, Academia, and Government ‘We are pattern-seeking, story-telling animals’ is the motto of this refreshing and comprehensive guide to MBA students INDICE: Part I: Introduction: Introduction: Turning Numbers into Knowledge.- Part II: Four Key Variables: Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Interest Rates: Cross Domestic Product. The Components of GDP: C+I+G+X-M. Employment andUnemployment. Inflation and Interest Rates. Extrapolative Forecasting.- Part III: Recessions: Symptoms: Recession Symptoms: Unwanted Idleness. Recession Comparison Charts. Who Struggles and Who Does Well in a Downturn? Stories: Idleness Stories. Cycle Stories. Early Warning Signs: Clues. Episodic Forecasting with Components of the Conference Board Index of Leading Indicators. Causes: The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Non-experimental Data. A Search for Recession Causes.- Part IV Expansions: With and Without Spurts: The Life Cycle of US Expansions: Sputters and Spurts.- Part V: The Longer Run: Savings, Investment, Government Borrowing, Foreign Lending and Your Home: Savings and Investment. Government Deficits Are Your Responsibility. The External Deficit and theValue of the Dollar. The Ups and Downs of Real Estate Values.
- ISBN: 978-3-540-46388-7
- Editorial: Springer
- Encuadernacion: Cartoné
- Páginas: 290
- Fecha Publicación: 01/10/2008
- Nº Volúmenes: 1
- Idioma: Inglés