Clinical prediction models: a practical approach to development, validation, and updating

Clinical Prediction Models presents a practical checklist with seven steps that need to be considered for development of a valid prediction model. These include preliminary considerations such as dealing with missing values; coding of predictors; selection of main effects and interactions for a multivariable model; estimation of model parameters with shrinkage methods and incorporation of external data; evaluation of performance and clinical usefulness; internal validation; and presentation format. The steps are illustrated with many smallcase studies and R computer code, with data sets made available in the publicdomain [http://www.clinicalpredictionmodels.org/]. The book further focuses on generalizability of prediction models, including patterns of invalidity thatmay be encountered in new settings, approaches to modifying and extending a model, and comparisons of centers after case-mix adjustment by a prediction model. The book is practical in nature A sensible strategy to all three aspects (development, validation, updating) is relevant to provide up-to-date prognostic models that can reliably support medical practice INDICE: Introduction.- Applications of prediction models.- Study design for prediction models.- Statistical models for prediction.- Overfitting and optimism in prediction models.- Choosing between alternative statistical models.- Dealing with missing values.- Case study on dealing with missing values.- Coding of categorical and continuous predictors.- Restrictions on candidate predictors.- Selection of main effects.- Assumptions in regression models: Additivity and linearity.- Modern estimation methods.- Estimation with external methods.- Evaluation of performance.- Clinical usefulness.- Validation of prediction models.- Presentation formats.- Patterns of external validity.- Updating for anew setting.- Updating for a multiple settings.- Prediction of a binary outcome: 30-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction.- Case study on survival analysis: Prediction of secondary cardiovascular events.- Lessons from case studies.

• ISBN: 978-0-387-77243-1
• Editorial: Springer
• Encuadernacion: Cartoné
• Páginas: 462
• Fecha Publicación: 01/10/2008
• Nº Volúmenes: 1
• Idioma: Inglés